Nubwo mu gice cya kabiri cya 2021, ibigo bimwe by’imodoka byagaragaje ko ikibazo cy’ibura rya chip mu 2022 kizanozwa, ariko OEM yongereye kugura no gutekereza ku mukino hamwe, hamwe no gutanga ubushobozi bwo gukora chip yo mu rwego rwo hejuru ikuze. Ubucuruzi buracyari murwego rwo kwagura ubushobozi bwumusaruro, kandi isoko ryisi yose iracyafite ingaruka zikomeye kubura ibura.
Muri icyo gihe, hamwe n’ihinduka ryihuse ry’inganda zitwara ibinyabiziga zigana amashanyarazi n’ubwenge, urwego rw’inganda zitanga chip nazo zizahinduka cyane.
1. Ububabare bwa MCU munsi yo kubura intangiriro
Noneho usubije amaso inyuma ukareba ibura rya cores ryatangiye mu mpera za 2020, nta gushidikanya ko iki cyorezo ari cyo nyirabayazana w’ubusumbane hagati yo gutanga no gukenera amamodoka.Nubwo isesengura ryimbitse ryimiterere yimikorere ya chipi ya MCU yisi yose (microcontroller) yerekana ko kuva 2019 kugeza 2020, ikwirakwizwa rya MCU mubikoresho bya elegitoroniki zikoresha amamodoka bizatwara 33% byisoko ryo hasi, ariko ugereranije nu biro bya interineti biri kure Kugeza hejuru. abashushanya chip bahangayikishijwe, inganda za chip hamwe nugupakira no gupima ibigo byagize ingaruka zikomeye kubibazo nko guhagarika icyorezo.
Uruganda rukora ibicuruzwa biva mu nganda zikora imirimo myinshi ruzagira ikibazo cy’ibura ry’abakozi ndetse n’igabanuka ry’imari shoramari mu mwaka wa 2020. Nyuma y’igishushanyo mbonera cya chip cyahinduwe mu bikenerwa n’amasosiyete y’imodoka, nticyashoboye guteganya neza umusaruro, ku buryo bigoye kugirango chip zitangwe kubushobozi bwuzuye.Mubiganza byuruganda rwimodoka, ibintu byubushobozi budahagije bwo gukora ibinyabiziga biragaragara.
Muri Kanama umwaka ushize, uruganda rwa Muar rwa STMicroelectronics i Muar, muri Maleziya byabaye ngombwa ko ruhagarika inganda zimwe na zimwe kubera ingaruka z’icyorezo gishya cy’ikamba, kandi iryo hagarikwa ryatumye habaho itangwa rya chip kuri Bosch ESP / IPB, VCU, TCU na izindi sisitemu ziri muburyo bwo guhagarika amasoko igihe kirekire.
Byongeye kandi, mu 2021, ibiza biherekeza nka nyamugigima n’umuriro nabyo bizatera inganda zimwe na zimwe kudashobora gutanga umusaruro mugihe gito.Muri Gashyantare umwaka ushize, umutingito wangije bikomeye Ubuyapani Renesas Electronics, umwe mu batanga chip ku isi.
Kutamenya neza icyifuzo cy’imodoka zikoreshwa n’imodoka n’amasosiyete y’imodoka, hamwe n’uko fab zo hejuru zahinduye ubushobozi bwo gukora imashini zikoresha ibinyabiziga mu bikoresho by’abaguzi hagamijwe kwemeza ibiciro by’ibikoresho, byatumye MCU na Ibihugu byigenga bifite aho bihurira cyane hagati yimodoka n’ibicuruzwa bya elegitoroniki.(CMOS ishusho ya sensor) irabura cyane.
Urebye muburyo bwa tekiniki, hari byibuze ubwoko 40 bwibikoresho gakondo byifashishwa mu gutwara ibinyabiziga, kandi umubare wamagare yose yakoreshejwe ni 500-600, arimo cyane cyane MCU, amashanyarazi y’amashanyarazi (IGBT, MOSFET, nibindi), sensor nibindi bitandukanye ibikoresho bisa.Imodoka yigenga nayo izakurikirana ibicuruzwa nka chipi yingoboka ya ADAS, CIS, abatunganya AI, lidars, milimetero-wave radar na MEMS bizakoreshwa.
Ukurikije umubare w’ibinyabiziga bikenerwa, abibasiwe cyane n’iki kibazo cy’ibura ry’ibura ni uko imodoka gakondo ikenera imashini zirenga 70 za MCU, naho imodoka MCU ni ESP (Electronic Stability Program System) na ECU (Ibice nyamukuru bigize ibinyabiziga bikuru bigenzura ).Dufashe impamvu nyamukuru yo kugabanuka kwa Haval H6 yatanzwe na Wall Wall inshuro nyinshi kuva umwaka ushize nkurugero, Urukuta runini rwavuze ko igabanuka rikabije ry’igurisha rya H6 mu mezi menshi ryatewe n’itangwa ridahagije rya Bosch ESP yakoresheje.Icyamamare cya Euler Black Cat na White Cat nacyo cyatangaje ko cyahagaritse by'agateganyo umusaruro muri Werurwe uyu mwaka kubera ibibazo nko kugabanya itangwa rya ESP no kuzamuka kw'ibiciro bya chip.
Biteye isoni, nubwo uruganda rukora amamodoka rwubaka kandi rugafasha imirongo mishya ya wafer mu 2021, kandi ikagerageza kwimura inzira yimodoka zishaje kumurongo ushaje ndetse numurongo mushya wa santimetero 12 mugihe kizaza, kugirango hongerwe ubushobozi kandi kunguka ubukungu bwikigereranyo, Nyamara, uburyo bwo gutanga ibikoresho bya semiconductor akenshi burenga igice cyumwaka.Byongeye kandi, bisaba igihe kirekire kugirango umurongo uhindurwe, kugenzura ibicuruzwa no kongera umusaruro, ibyo bigatuma umusaruro mushya ushobora kuba mwiza muri 2023-2024..
Twabibutsa ko nubwo igitutu kimaze igihe kinini, amasosiyete yimodoka aracyafite ikizere ku isoko.Kandi ubushobozi bushya bwo gukora chip bugenewe gukemura ikibazo kinini cyo gukora chip muri iki gihe kizaza.
2. Intambara nshya munsi yubwenge bwamashanyarazi
Nyamara, kubijyanye ninganda zitwara ibinyabiziga, gukemura ikibazo cya chip kiriho birashobora gukemura gusa byihutirwa ibikenerwa byamasoko biriho hamwe nibisabwa asimmetrie.Imbere yo guhindura inganda zamashanyarazi nubwenge, umuvuduko wo gutanga imashini zikoresha imodoka uziyongera cyane mugihe kizaza.
Hamwe n’ibisabwa byiyongera ku kugenzura ibinyabiziga bigenzurwa n’ibicuruzwa bikomoka ku mashanyarazi, kandi mu gihe cyo kuzamura FOTA no gutwara mu buryo bwikora, umubare w’ibikoresho by’ibinyabiziga bishya byazamuwe uva kuri 500-600 mu gihe cy’ibinyabiziga bya lisansi ugera ku 1.000 kugeza ku 1200.Umubare w’ibinyabuzima nawo wiyongereye uva kuri 40 ugera ku 150.
Bamwe mu bahanga mu nganda z’imodoka bavuze ko mu rwego rw’imodoka zo mu rwego rwo hejuru zifite amashanyarazi akomeye mu gihe kiri imbere, umubare w’imodoka imwe iziyongera inshuro nyinshi ukagera ku bice birenga 3.000, ndetse n’igipimo cy’imashini zikoresha amamodoka mu giciro cy’ibikoresho bya ibinyabiziga byose biziyongera kuva kuri 4% muri 2019 bigere kuri 12 muri 2025.%, kandi birashobora kwiyongera kugera kuri 20% muri 2030. Ibi ntibisobanura gusa ko mugihe cyubwenge bwamashanyarazi, icyifuzo cyibikoresho byimodoka kiriyongera, ariko kandi yerekana izamuka ryihuse mubibazo bya tekiniki nigiciro cya chip ikenewe kubinyabiziga.
Bitandukanye na OEM gakondo, aho 70% ya chipi yimodoka ya lisansi ari 40-45nm na 25% ni chip-spes nkeya hejuru ya 45nm, igipimo cya chip mubikorwa 40-45nm kubikorwa byimodoka nini nini zo mumashanyarazi kumasoko bifite yagabanutse kugera kuri 25%.45%, mugihe igipimo cya chips hejuru ya 45nm inzira ni 5% gusa.Urebye muburyo bwa tekiniki, imikurire yo murwego rwohejuru ikuze munsi ya 40nm hamwe niterambere rya 10nm na 7nm itunganijwe ntagushidikanya ni uduce dushya two guhatanira ibihe bishya byinganda zitwara ibinyabiziga.
Raporo y’ubushakashatsi yashyizwe ahagaragara na Hushan Capital mu mwaka wa 2019, umubare w’amashanyarazi y’amashanyarazi mu modoka yose wazamutse vuba uva kuri 21% mu gihe cy’ibinyabiziga bya lisansi ugera kuri 55%, mu gihe chip ya MCU yagabanutse kuva kuri 23% igera kuri 11%.
Nyamara, kwagura ubushobozi bwa chip umusaruro wagaragajwe nabakora ibicuruzwa bitandukanye biracyagarukira gusa kuri chip ya gakondo ya MCU ishinzwe moteri / chassis / kugenzura umubiri.
Ku binyabiziga bifite amashanyarazi, chip ya AI ishinzwe gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga no guhuza;imbaraga z'amashanyarazi nka IGBT (inzugi zifunguye ebyiri transistor) ishinzwe guhindura ingufu;sensor chip yo kugenzura radar yigenga ikurikirana byiyongereye cyane kubisabwa.Birashoboka cyane ko bizahinduka icyiciro gishya cyibibazo "byo kubura ingenzi" ibigo byimodoka bizahura nabyo murwego rukurikira.
Ariko, murwego rushya, ikibuza amasosiyete yimodoka ntigishobora kuba ikibazo cyubushobozi bwumusaruro kibangamiwe nimpamvu zituruka hanze, ahubwo "ijosi ryiziritse" rya chip ryabujijwe kuruhande rwa tekiniki.
Dufashe ibyifuzo bya chip ya AI yazanwe nubwenge nkurugero, ingano yo kubara ya software yigenga yigenga imaze kugera ku mibare ibiri ya TOPS (ibikorwa bya tiriyari ku isegonda), kandi imbaraga zo kubara za MCUs zikoresha amamodoka ntizishobora kuzuza ibisabwa mu kubara. y'ibinyabiziga byigenga.Imashini za AI nka GPUs, FPGAs, na ASIC zinjiye ku isoko ryimodoka.
Mu gice cya mbere cyumwaka ushize, Horizon yatangaje ku mugaragaro ko ibicuruzwa byayo byo mu rwego rwa gatatu by’ibinyabiziga byo mu rwego rwa gatatu, chip ya Urugendo 5, byasohotse ku mugaragaro.Dukurikije amakuru yemewe, chipi yurugendo rwa 5 ifite imbaraga zo kubara 96TOPS, gukoresha ingufu za 20W, hamwe ningufu zingana na 4.8TOPS / W..Ugereranije na tekinoroji ya 16nm ya chip ya FSD (imikorere yigenga yigenga) yasohowe na Tesla muri 2019, ibipimo bya chip imwe ifite ingufu za comptabilite ya 72TOPS, gukoresha ingufu za 36W hamwe ningaruka zingufu za 2TOPS / W zifite Byateye imbere cyane.Iyi ntsinzi yatsindiye kandi ubufatanye n’amasosiyete menshi y’imodoka harimo SAIC, BYD, Great Wall Motor, Chery, na Ideal.
Bitewe nubwenge, uruhare rwinganda rwihuse cyane.Guhera kuri FSD ya Tesla, iterambere rya AI nyamukuru igenzura ni nko gufungura agasanduku ka Pandora.Nyuma yigihe gito cyurugendo 5, NVIDIA yahise isohora chip ya Orin izaba imwe-chip.Imbaraga zo kubara ziyongereye kugera kuri 254TOPS.Kubijyanye nububiko bwa tekiniki, Nvidia yanabonye chip ya Atlan SoC ifite imbaraga imwe yo kubara igera kuri 1000TOPS kubaturage umwaka ushize.Kugeza ubu, NVIDIA ifite umwanya wihariye ku isoko rya GPU ry’imodoka nyamukuru igenzura ibinyabiziga, ikomeza umugabane wa 70% umwaka wose.
Nubwo kwinjiza igihangange cya terefone igendanwa Huawei mu nganda z’imodoka byateje amarushanwa menshi mu nganda zikoresha amamodoka, birazwi neza ko bitewe n’impamvu zituruka hanze, Huawei ifite uburambe bukomeye bwo gushushanya muri gahunda ya 7nm SoC, ariko ntishobora fasha abakora chip yo hejuru.kuzamura isoko.
Ibigo by’ubushakashatsi bivuga ko agaciro k’amagare ya chip chip ka AI kazamuka vuba kuva ku madolari 100 muri 2019 kugeza kuri $ 1.000 + muri 2025;icyarimwe, isoko rya chip chip yo mu gihugu imbere naryo riziyongera kuva kuri miliyoni 900 US $ muri 2019 rigere kuri 91 muri 2025. Miliyoni ijana zamadorari y’Amerika.Iterambere ryihuse ryibisabwa ku isoko hamwe na tekinoroji yihariye ya chip yo mu rwego rwo hejuru nta gushidikanya ko bizatera imbere ubwenge bw’ejo hazaza h’amasosiyete y’imodoka kurushaho.
Kimwe nibisabwa ku isoko rya chip ya AI, IGBT, nkigice cyingenzi cya semiconductor (harimo chip, insulateri insulateri, terminal hamwe nibindi bikoresho) mumodoka nshya yingufu zifite igiciro kingana na 8-10%, nayo ifite ingaruka zikomeye kumajyambere azaza yinganda zitwara ibinyabiziga.Nubwo amasosiyete yo mu gihugu nka BYD, Star Semiconductor, na Microelectronics ya Silan yatangiye gutanga IGBT ku masosiyete y’imodoka zo mu gihugu, kuri ubu, ubushobozi bwa IGBT bw’amasosiyete yavuzwe haruguru buracyafite imbogamizi ku bunini bw’ibigo, ku buryo bigoye gutwikira amasoko mashya yingufu zo murugo.kuzamuka kw'isoko.
Amakuru meza nuko imbere yicyiciro gikurikira cya SiC gisimbuye IGBTs, amasosiyete yubushinwa ntabwo asigaye inyuma mumiterere, no kwagura SiC igishushanyo mbonera nubushobozi bwo gukora hashingiwe kubushobozi bwa IGBT R&D vuba bishoboka biteganijwe ko bizafasha ibigo byimodoka kandi ikoranabuhanga.Ababikora bunguka urwego rukurikira rwamarushanwa.
3. Yunyi Semiconductor, ingirakamaro yibikorwa byubwenge
Mu guhangana n’ibura rya chip mu nganda z’imodoka, Yunyi yiyemeje gukemura ikibazo cyo gutanga ibikoresho bya semiconductor kubakiriya mu nganda z’imodoka.Niba ushaka kumenya ibikoresho bya Yunyi Semiconductor hanyuma ugakora iperereza, nyamuneka kanda ihuriro:https://www.yunyi-china.net/semiconductor/.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Werurwe-25-2022